Week 18 NFL Picks: Early Odds to Exploit for Best Over/Under Box Score Bets

Joe TanseyJanuary 1, 2025

Week 18 NFL Picks: Early Odds to Exploit for Best Over/Under Box Score Bets

0 of 3

    MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - DECEMBER 29: Justin Jefferson #18 of the Minnesota Vikings runs with the ball  during the third quarter of a game against the Green Bay Packers at U.S. Bank Stadium on December 29, 2024 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)
    Stephen Maturen/Getty Images

    The biggest game on the NFL Week 18 schedule has the potential to be one of the best games of the regular season.

    The over/under for the Detroit Lions' clash with the Minnesota Vikings is set at 57 at DraftKings Sportsbook. It is the only total on the Week 18 board over 50.

    The two incredible offenses could put on a show inside Ford Field. A high point total might be required for the Lions to win given their recent defensive shortcomings.

    Detroit just won a 40-34 clash with the San Francisco 49ers in Week 17 and it has regularly scored in the 30s and 40s this season.

    Minnesota can take advantage of Detroit's poor defensive play of late and potentially make it a game where the first team to 40 points wins.

    Other games across the Week 18 slate are much harder to figure out because of who is and isn't playing. A smattering of backup quarterbacks will be used, which in turn, could cut down scoring across the league.

Vikings at Lions (Over 57)

1 of 3

    SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA - DECEMBER 30: Jahmyr Gibbs #26 of the Detroit Lions runs with the ball during an NFL Football game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium on December 30, 2024 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)
    Michael Owens/Getty Images

    The Lions have been involved in their share of high-scoring games over the last month.

    Detroit won a 34-31 game over the Green Bay Packers in Week 14, lost 48-42 to the Buffalo Bills in Week 15 and just won a 40-34 contest over the 49ers on Monday night.

    The litany of injuries to Detroit's defense is the primary cause of all the high-scoring contests.

    The over is 4-0 in the last four Lions games. Three of those overs hit despite the total closing in the mid 50s.

    Detroit and Minnesota cleared the over/under by 11 points in their Week 7 meeting that the Lions won 31-29.

    Minnesota could surprise us all and turn in an incredible defensive performance, but it is hard to contain all the weapons inside the Detroit offense.

    The Vikings allowed 391 total yards in Week 7 and they have allowed over 20 points in three of the last five weeks.

    All of the signs point to a game with both teams in the 30s and big plays being made by Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown and the other notable names on each offensive roster.

Commanders at Cowboys (Over 43.5)

2 of 3

    LANDOVER, MARYLAND - DECEMBER 29: Jayden Daniels #5 of the Washington Commanders reacts against the Atlanta Falcons at Northwest Stadium on December 29, 2024 in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Timothy Nwachukwu/Getty Images)
    Timothy Nwachukwu/Getty Images

    The Washington Commanders are one of the best teams to the over in the NFL at 11-5.

    Jayden Daniels and Co. should have revenge on their minds against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 18. Dallas beat Washington 34-26 back in Week 12.

    Dallas' offensive performance in that contest is promising for the over, even if CeeDee Lamb will not be on the field.

    The Cowboys had decent movement on their drives last week in Philadelphia. Jalen Tolbert, Brandin Cooks and Jake Ferguson all need to step up to help Cooper Rush, who has four 200-yard passing performances as a starter this season.

    Washington produced 412 total yards in Week 13 and it could run all over the Dallas defense that was just gashed for 179 ground yards by the Philadelphia Eagles.

    Daniels could feast with both his arm and legs, which could lead to a Commanders point total somewhere in the 30s.

    If that is the case, the Cowboys only need to score 10-15 points against a Washington defense that allowed at least 19 points in every game dating back to Week 9.

Browns at Ravens (Under 41.5)

3 of 3

    HOUSTON, TEXAS - DECEMBER 25: Tight end Mark Andrews #89 of the Baltimore Ravens celebrates with tight end Isaiah Likely #80 after scoring a touchdown during the second half of an NFL football game against the Houston Texans, at NRG Stadium on December 25, 2024 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Brooke Sutton/Getty Images)
    Brooke Sutton/Getty Images

    The Baltimore Ravens are the best team to the over in the NFL, but the under is probably the best bet for their Week 18 clash with the Cleveland Browns.

    Cleveland had a miserable offensive performance in Week 17 with Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center.

    The Browns' three points against the Miami Dolphins extended a three-week run of single-digit point totals.

    Baltimore just held the Houston Texans to two points in Week 17, so imagine what that unit can do against a much worse offense.

    The Ravens could easily win by a score of 31-0, or something along those lines, and the under would hit with ease.

    There should be zero trust in the Cleveland offense to help hit the over, and Baltimore might take it easy in the second half if it has the AFC North title wrapped up.

    Gambling problem? Call (877-8-HOPENY) or text HOPENY (467369).

    If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visiting ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), visiting OPGR.org (OR), or calling/texting TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) or 1-888-532-3500 (VA).

    Odds and lines subject to change. 21+ (18+ NH/WY). AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.

X