Predicting Where MLB's Most Valuable Free Agent Rōki Sasaki Lands Amid Latest Rumors

The most coveted player left on MLB's free-agent market is nearing his decision, and his choice can be predicted with 33.3 percent accuracy.

It is down to three teams for Japanese ace Rōki Sasaki, with Jeff Passan of ESPN reporting that these clubs are the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres and Toronto Blue Jays.

The Dodgers and Padres have been in the middle of the Sasaki sweepstakes from the beginning, with both taking turns as supposed favorites for the 23-year-old right-hander.

The Blue Jays are an unexpected finalist. They were not reported to have met with Sasaki before New Year's, which is to say nothing of how their contention window compares to those of Los Angeles and San Diego.

Sasaki and his agent, Joel Wolfe, could pick a team as soon as today, as Wednesday marks the opening of MLB's signing period for international amateur free agents. But as Passan noted, the two will likely take advantage of the extra time in Sasaki's posting window, which closes on Jan. 23.

With this in mind, let's consider all the factors and make a final prediction for where Sasaki will land.

What We Know About Sasaki's Priorities

Whatever ultimately drives Sasaki's decision-making, it isn't going to be how much money he'll receive upfront.

Between his youth, triple-digit fastball, devastating splitter and track record of success in Nippon Professional Baseball, it's no surprise that Sasaki projects to be a productive major leaguer right off the proverbial bat. FanGraphs, for example, has him down for a 3.19 ERA over 148 innings in 2025.

Sasaki would likely be up for a nine-figure contract if he was two years older. But since he's not yet 25, here's what his finalists can offer him from their international bonus pools:

• Padres and Blue Jays: $6,261,600
• Dodgers: $5,146,200

As such, the bulk of Sasaki's initial earnings will come from endorsements. In theory, a bigger market would help with that, but Wolfe told SNY's Andy Martino that market size "isn't a factor either way" for Sasaki.

According to ESPN's Alden Gonzalez, Wolfe has also said that Sasaki doesn't "seem overly concerned" about whether his next team already has Japanese players.

As for what does matter to Sasaki, Wolfe put it out there in December that teams' "overall success" is one thing that matters to Sasaki.

Sasaki has also been interested in what his Japanese teammates from the 2023 World Baseball Classic have done. And in his meetings with interested teams, he was set to ask "about weather, about comfortability, about pitching development."

Let's Pro/Con Sasaki's Finalists

Though only Sasaki knows what is happening inside his head, it isn't difficult to look at his three finalists and determine what they can and can't offer.

Since the best thing to do is rank them according to how much each needs Sasaki, let's start with the reigning champs.

3. Los Angeles Dodgers

Pros: Success, Japanese Stars, Resources, Endorsement Opportunities

The Dodgers just won their second World Series in five years, which is only part of their 19-season run as the winningest team in MLB.

With or without Sasaki, there is no doubt that the wins will keep flowing in. The Dodgers are the most resource-rich team in MLB, whether we're talking about their revenue or a farm system that B/R's Joel Reuter ranks 8th in the league.

The Dodgers already have a couple of Japanese stars: Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Both played with Sasaki on Team Japan in the 2023 WBC.

And as Fabian Ardaya and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic noted, the Dodgers have "shown an ability to maximize the endorsement opportunities" of players in Japan. Ohtani, who may have made nine figures in endorsements last year, can vouch.

Cons: Star Crowd, Pitching Injuries, Cost of Living

The Dodgers are not Sasaki's best choice if he wants to be the biggest star in the room. He'd probably only be the No. 5 option within their starting rotation.

Plus, the mere presence of Ohtani and Yamamoto could conceivably hurt Sasaki financially. Jim Bowden of The Athletic posited that sharing a uniform with those two would "lessen [Sasaki's] endorsement ceiling."

Regardless, playing for the Dodgers could cost Sasaki in other ways.

Dodgers teams of recent vintage have not done well in keeping pitchers healthy. There are also financial considerations, as Los Angeles is not a cheap place to live and California taxes high earners at 13.3 percent.

2. San Diego Padres

Pros: San Diego, Yu Darvish, Need, Chance to Make History

Since Sasaki cares about weather, it's tempting to see the Padres as the best spot for him just on that account. San Diego is kind of a nice place to live.

It's otherwise no secret that Yu Darvish is one of Sasaki's idols, a friend, WBC teammate and mentor. The youngster even got tips from Darvish on how to throw a better slider.

Joe Musgrove's Tommy John surgery notwithstanding, the Padres haven't had the same issues with pitching injuries as the Dodgers. And whereas he would share a rotation with Ohtani, Yamamoto, Blake Snell, and Tyler Glasnow in Los Angeles, Sasaki would likely slot after Dylan Cease and Michael King and ahead of Darvish in San Diego.

That is the micro of why the Padres need Sasaki. The macro is that they've existed for 56 seasons and have still yet to win the World Series. Sasaki could help change that.

Cons: Cost of Living, Second Fiddle, Payroll Crunch, Future Outlook

Though San Diego is cheaper than Los Angeles, the difference (per Numbeo) isn't as great as you might think. And those California taxes still apply.

Even if they occasionally push their big brother around, the Padres are the little brother in their relationship in the National League West. The Dodgers have obviously been more successful, and the revenue gap between the two franchises is in the hundreds of millions.

Even if that didn't hurt Sasaki's endorsement outlook, he has cause to wonder if the Padres would ever sign him to a big contract. They did much of that under late owner Peter Seidler, but his passing in 2023 has given way to an era of payroll downsizing and infighting.

Looking ahead, the Padres' future is clouded by two mitigating factors: the bad contracts of Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts and MLB's No. 28 farm system.

1. Toronto Blue Jays

Pros: Big Profile, Veteran Leadership, Cost of Living

Toronto is substantially more affordable than Los Angeles or San Diego. And for what it's worth, Canadian taxes technically only apply to home games.

It's also possible that if he picked the Blue Jays, Sasaki would have a bigger profile to attract endorsements. He would instantly become one of the biggest sports stars in the country and perhaps even Toronto's No. 1 starting pitcher.

This said, it wouldn't hurt him to pick the brains of Kevin Gausman, José Berríos and Chris Bassitt. The Blue Jays can also boast of some recent developmental successes, including pre-injury Alek Manoah and Bowden Francis' late-season breakout in 2024.

Cons: Bad Present, Possibly Even Worse Future

The Dodgers and Padres are good teams. The Blue Jays are not.

They finished in last place in the American League East in 2024, with their 74 wins falling 19 short of San Diego and 24 short of Los Angeles. So if Sasaki truly does care about joining a successful team, picking Toronto would be quite the fakeout.

And the future? It's bleak.

The Blue Jays have been unable to extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette, who are both ticketed for free agency after 2025. Meanwhile, their farm system is the second-worst in the AL and No. 27 in all of MLB.

Sasaki Will Sign with...

The Dodgers. It will be the Dodgers.

This is a boring pick, given that the Dodgers have most often been Sasaki's favorite throughout this process. But that isn't even why they're also the sensible pick.

The Dodgers are in a moment of time wherein if they want a player, they get him. It's how they got Ohtani, Yamamoto, Snell, Glasnow, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Teoscar Hernández, and they seem serious about making it happen with Sasaki, too.

Their last-minute meeting with Sasaki on Tuesday wasn't just any meeting. Per Ardaya and Rosenthal, it was "expected to feature several" stars. That only makes sense, considering how neither the Padres nor the Blue Jays can compete in that kind of shock-and-awe campaign. No team can.

The Dodgers also check what boxes we know Sasaki has. Pitching development is the one we can quibble about, but the pitchers who have broken under the team's care shouldn't obscure how many have been fixed by them. It's a big reason why they led the National League in ERA annually between 2017 and 2022.

So, there you have it. Rōki Sasaki, future Dodger.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.