Texans vs. Chiefs: Odds, Box Score Stat Predictions for 2025 AFC Divisional Game

The Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs open the NFL divisional round on Saturday afternoon.

The Chiefs' starters have been off since Christmas Day after they clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC and home-field advantage.

Kansas City has played in at least three playoff games in each of the last five postseasons it has participated in.

All but one of the Chiefs' divisional-round wins during that span have been by at least six points. The lone exception is a three-point win over the Buffalo Bills last season.

Houston won outright as an underdog in the wild-card round, but it faces a clear disadvantage in offensive weapons compared to Kansas City.

Nico Collins and Joe Mixon must be involved at high rates inside Arrowhead Stadium in order to give the Texans a shot at pulling off an upset.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread: Kansas City (-8.5)

Over/Under: 41.5

Money Line: Kansas City (-455; bet $455 to win $100); Houston (+350; bet $100 to win $350)

Nico Collins will be the go-to target inside the Houston offense.

Collins had seven receptions on eight targets, 122 receiving yards and a touchdown in the wild-card round win over the Los Angeles Chargers. He has 18 receptions on 25 targets in three postseason appearances.

Collins has five 100-yard performances so far this season and he had seven catches for 60 yards in the regular-season clash with the Chiefs. The Texans' top wide out was targeted on 10 occasions in Week 16.

Houston had seven other players catch at least one pass against the Chargers, but none of them had over 40 receiving yards.

John Metchie was targeted eight times by C.J. Stroud. Metchie and Cade Stover each had four receptions last week.

The passing game might be relied on more if Joe Mixon is not 100 percent. Mixon is questionable with an ankle injury.

Mixon has had mixed results against the Chiefs in the postseason. He had 88 yards on 21 carries in an AFC Championship win over Kansas City in 2022, but then was held to 19 yards on eight touches in 2023.

Stat Predictions:

Nico Collins: 8 catches, 85 yards, TD

Joe Mixon: 65 rushing yards

Travis Kelce begins the postseason with some incredible statistical trends.

The Chiefs tight end has had at least 70 receiving yards in his last 14 postseason games. That run began with a 134-yard, three-touchdown performance against the Texans in the 2020 divisional round.

Kelce did not have his best regular season, but he hauled in eight catches for 84 yards in his last regular-season game in Week 17 against Pittsburgh.

Isiah Pacheco's health could also be a huge factor inside the Kansas City offense. He received a few weeks to rest up and continue to get back to full strength following his lengthy injury absence.

Pacheco averaged 35 rushing yards per game in his five appearances to close out the regular season. He had at least 59 rushing yards in all four of his postseason games last season.

Patrick Mahomes has thrown for at least 200 yards in eight of his last 10 postseason games. He's gone over 300 yards in four of those contests.

Predictions:

Travis Kelce: 6 receptions, 60 yards, TD

Isiah Pacheco: 70 rushing yards

Patrick Mahomes: 224 passing yards, 2 TD

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