Bills vs. Chiefs: AFC Championship 2025 Odds and Box Score Predictions

Familiar foes shall meet again in the 2024-25 AFC Championship on Sunday.

For the fourth time in five years, the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills are squaring off in the NFL playoffs. The Bills are still searching for a way around the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes, who has club just two wins shy of being the first ever three-peat Super Bowl champs.

The Bills and Josh Allen did topple the Chiefs during the regular season, though that outcome has no bearing on this one. Oddsmakers see Kansas City as a slight favorite, which probably makes sense given the group's performance to this point and the fact it's playing on its home field.

Let's dissect this matchup a bit, then, by laying out the scheduling information and latest lines from DraftKings Sportsbook before providing a box-score prediction for a player from each team.

Date: Sunday, January 26

Time: 6:30 p.m. ET

TV, Stream: CBS, Paramount+

Spread: Chiefs -1.5

Over/Under: 47.5

Moneyline: Bills (+105; bet $100 to win $105); Chiefs (-125; bet $125 to win $100)

A quiet (by his standards) regular season appears to be giving away to another epic playoff showing from Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. His 117 receiving yards in the Divisional Round were his most this season, and his touchdown catch was only his fourth of the campaign.

"It's big-time players make big-time plays in big-time games and that's just how simple it is," Mahomes told reporters afterward. "He's one of those guys."

The Chiefs might be as healthy and deep in the backfield and at wide receiver than they've been all season, but Kelce remains their best game-breaking playmaker. He's a walking mismatch who has tremendous chemistry with Mahomes. Kansas City can, will and should do everything it can to maximize the impact of that partnership.

Buffalo has had three cracks at containing Kelce on this stage, and it's yet to accomplish that. In those matchups, he amassed 26 catches on 30 targets for 289 yards and five touchdowns. There's no logical reason to think his production slows down during the latest installment of this rivalry.

After some offseason reshuffling, this looked like it might be a down year for the Buffaloes. Josh Allen ensured that never happened, putting together an MVP-caliber campaign that featured a number of impressive accomplishments—including scoring the only win over Mahomes and the Chiefs' starters. (Kansas City's second loss was a meaningless game in Week 18 during which it sat its regulars.)

The Bills are dangerous, and Allen is the biggest reason why. He is a dual-threat quarterback in the truest sense, equally capable of dismantling defenses with both his arm and his legs. He did a little of both during that regular-season victory, throwing for 262 yards and a score and generating another 55 yards and a touchdown on the ground.

He might need to be superheroic for Buffalo to finally get past Kansas City, but he has the superhero skills to do just that. He has already tallied at least three combined rushing and passing scores seven different times this season.

Calling for an eighth game seems ambitious given the quality of the Chiefs' defense, but our crystal ball thinks he's up for it. The last two times he squared off with this defense in the playoffs, he threw for five scores and run for two more. Look for another three-plus-touchdown performance under the bright lights.

Gambling problem? Call (877-8-HOPENY) or text HOPENY (467369).

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visiting ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), visiting OPGR.org (OR), or calling/texting TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) or 1-888-532-3500 (VA).

Odds and lines subject to change. 21+ (18+ NH/WY). AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.