Bills vs. Chiefs: Updated Odds, Box Score Predictions for AFC Championship 2025

The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs will renew their rivalry in Sunday's AFC Championship Game.

The Bills and Chiefs have split their last eight meetings, but the Chiefs have the upper hand in the postseason.

Kansas City won its last three postseason battles with the Bills, and if that streak extends to four games, Travis Kelce will play a massive role in the victory.

Kelce has been Patrick Mahomes' go-to target in the postseason for quite some time and that should not change on Sunday.

The Bills have a clear offensive strategy as well. They like to get Khalil Shakir involved in any way possible and Josh Allen will try to hurt the Chiefs with his legs.

The distinct strategies in play make it easy to figure out who will be cast in the starring roles on Sunday night inside Arrowhead Stadium.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread: Kansas City (-1.5)

Over/Under: 48.5

Money Line: Kansas City (-125; bet $125 to win $100); Buffalo (+105; bet $100 to win $105)

The Bills have a clear approach on offense.

Josh Allen will target Khalil Shakir at a high rate, James Cook will get a good amount of carries and Allen will make plays with his legs.

The supporting cast chips in when called upon, but the stars out of that group are harder to predict.

Shakir hauled in 12 catches for 128 yards in the first two playoff games and he had eight catches for 70 yards against the Chiefs in the regular season.

Allen has an even more distinct trend in his favor when it comes to rushing yards.

The Bills quarterback has run for at least 68 yards in each of his three playoff meetings with the Chiefs.

Allen ran the ball 12 times for 55 yards when the Bills took down the Chiefs earlier this season. Cook only had nine rushes for 20 yards in that contest.

Cook will get some touches in the rushing game, but against the Kansas City pass rush, Allen might have to do the most work with his legs.

Stat Predictions

Khalil Shakir: 7 receptions, 80 yards

Josh Allen: 225 passing yards, 75 rushing yards

Kansas City's postseason offensive approach is centered around Travis Kelce.

Kelce comes into Sunday with 14 straight postseason games with at least 70 receiving yards.

He tore apart the Houston secondary for 117 yards and a touchdown on seven catches in the divisional round.

You can throw away the fact that Kelce had two catches for eight yards in the regular-season loss to the Bills.

There's a clear focus to get him involved early and often in the postseason. Kelce and Xavier Worthy were the only Chiefs players to earn more than three targets from Mahomes.

Worthy has at least five catches in six straight games. He might not produce the same yardage numbers as Kelce, but he is the clear top option at wide receiver.

Stat Predictions

Travis Kelce: 8 receptions, 85 yards

Xavier Worthy: 5 receptions, 47 yards

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