Bills vs. Chiefs: Final Odds, Spread Picks for AFC Championship Game 2025

The latest chapter in the Buffalo Bills-Kansas City Chiefs rivalry will be written on Sunday afternoon.

The Chiefs are appearing in their seventh straight AFC Championship Game and are in search of their fifth Super Bowl appearance in six years.

Buffalo has come close to beating Kansas City in the postseason, but the Chiefs own a 3-0 record against the Bills in the Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes era.

The last two postseason battles have been decided by a total of nine points. One game went into overtime and the other was decided by a missed game-tying field goal.

Kansas City is favored to win on Sunday and return to the Super Bowl, but the spread is only 1.5 points.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread: Kansas City (-1.5)

Over/Under: 48.5

Money Line: Kansas City (-125; bet $125 to win $100); Buffalo (+105; bet $100 to win $105)

Buffalo should enter Arrowhead Stadium with a decent level of confidence that it can beat the Chiefs because it already did so in the regular season.

The Bills beat the Chiefs 30-21 in Week 11 in upstate New York, a victory that was powered by 317 total yards from Josh Allen.

Allen threw for 262 yards and ran for 55 more in that contest. A similar stat line will likely be needed to take down the Chiefs on the road in a playoff contest.

The Bills will need more out of James Cook to complement Allen's arm and legs. Cook only ran for 20 yards on nine carries in Week 11.

Allen must use a wide arsenal of pass-catchers to attack the Kansas City secondary, like he did in Week 11 when four players had at least 40 receiving yards.

The big key for Allen is to avoid turnovers, which he has done for the most part in his postseason career.

Allen has 23 touchdowns and four interceptions through the air in 12 playoff appearances. He has another seven end zone trips on the ground.

If the Week 11 version of the Bills shows up, and with an improved version of Cook, they stand a chance of pulling off the upset.

The Chiefs are built to win AFC Championship Games.

Kansas City is 4-2 on conference championship weekend in the Andy Reid-Patrick Mahomes era.

The last three AFC Championship Games were tight contests for the Chiefs. They lost to the Cincinnati Bengals by three in 2022, then beat Cincinnati by three in 2023 and defeated the Baltimore Ravens by seven points in 2024.

That is a stark change from the start of the Mahomes era. The Chiefs advanced to the Super Bowl in 2020 and 2021 by a combined margin of victory of 25 points.

The key to success starts with the Mahomes-Travis Kelce connection. Kelce comes into Sunday with 14 straight postseason games with at least 70 receiving yards.

Kelce had 116 receiving yards and a touchdown in last season's AFC Championship Game triumph in Baltimore and he has a strong track record against Buffalo in the postseason.

Kelce recorded at least 75 receiving yards in each of the three postseason battles with Buffalo. He also has five touchdowns spread across those contests.

Mahomes will have to spread the ball around a bit to Xavier Worthy and others, but if he and Kelce are cruising in the passing game, it likely means the Chiefs are in great shape.

Kansas City 27, Buffalo 24

It's incredibly difficult to pick against Mahomes, Kelce and the Chiefs in the postseason.

Kansas City carries an unbeatable aura with it to the field and a perfect game is needed to dethrone Andy Reid's team.

Buffalo should be able to keep the game tight, but if it struggles in the rushing game against Chris Jones and Co, it could have a few short possessions that allow Kansas City to open up enough of a gap on the scoreboard.

As he has been in the past, Kelce should be the ultimate playoff difference-maker, and unless the Bills find ways to stop him, the Chiefs should create plenty of opportunities to score around the red zone.

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